Changes In The Ratio Of Payments To Highlight Two Major Problems Of RMB Internationalization

< p > the central bank recently released the "a href=" http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "monetary policy < /a > implementation report in the second quarter of this year. The report shows that in the first half of the year, banks accumulated 3 trillion and 270 billion yuan in cross-border trade RMB settlement business, an increase of 59% over the same period last year.

With the increase of RMB's outflow and reflux channels, the amount of RMB cross-border trade settlement has increased significantly.

< /p >

< p > there is no doubt that RMB settlement in cross-border trade is a key step in the internationalization of RMB, which is related to the function of RMB as currency of valuation and reserve currency.

An important link of currency internationalization is that money is out of the country, which usually has two forms. One is the import trade is paid in the local currency, and the two is the foreign direct investment in the form of local currency.

Since 2009, the amount of RMB outward direct investment has increased, but the total amount is very small. In 2013, the total settlement amount of foreign direct investment amounted to 85 billion 610 million yuan in 2013, which is related to the progress of capital account liberalization. Capital control restricts the RMB going out through capital account. On the other hand, it also shows that in the early stage of RMB internationalization, it is safe to go out through the current account.

< /p >

< p > a prerequisite for realizing currency internationalization through current account is that the amount of local currency paid by import trade is greater than the amount of domestic currency received by export trade. Therefore, the real payment ratio of foreign trade is an important index to measure the internationalization of money.

If the ratio of receipts and payments is greater than 1, it indicates that the real receipts are larger than the actual payments, and the local currency is in a net return state. If the ratio of receipts and payments is less than 1, it indicates that the actual receipts are less than the actual payments, and the local currency is in a net outflow state.

The best state for a country to promote currency internationalization is < a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > > /a < > less than 1, and the actual payment is far greater than the actual receipt.

< /p >

< p > we noticed that in the first quarter of 2011, the ratio of RMB receipts and payments was 1/5, which paid much more than the actual receipts, and the RMB was in a net outflow state.

After that, the proportion continued to rise, the second quarter of 2011 was 1/2.9, the third quarter was 1/1.67, and it rose to 1/1.2 in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Subsequently, this proportion also decreased slightly, the first half of 2014 was 1/1.6.

< /p >

< p > I believe that the change of a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cross-border trade < /a > RMB ratio highlights the two difficult problems of RMB internationalization.

First, the "Terry Finn" between the net outflow of RMB and the stability of currency.

A necessary condition for the international currency is that the currency is stable. The large net outflow of the RMB will damage this essential condition. However, if the RMB can not achieve a large net outflow, it will not become an international currency, and the internationalization of RMB will also face the "Terry Finn" problem faced by the international currency.

Second, promoting the internationalization of RMB through current account is relatively stable, but the process is slow, which is against the great goal of RMB internationalization.

The initial stage of RMB internationalization can take the current account, but to a certain extent, it needs to pition to capital account, or both current account and capital account. Therefore, capital account liberalization is complementary to RMB internationalization. Capital control as a barrier to currency internationalization needs to be lifted step by step.

< /p >

< p > of course, the ratio of receipts and payments has changed from 1/1.2 in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 1/1.6 in the first half of 2014, indicating that cross-border trade payment is more stable than RMB receipts.

The author believes that in order to achieve net outflow of RMB through current account in the future, efforts should be made from the following two aspects.

First, we should increase the tax preference for RMB payment in import trade, and encourage more enterprises to use Renminbi to settle accounts in import trade.

Second, through the promotion of RMB internationalization through current account, the fundamental measure is to increase the bargaining power and bargaining power of enterprises in import and export trade, especially in import trade, and to a large extent determine import and export pricing and settlement currencies.

If a large number of Chinese enterprises can decide to pay in Renminbi when they import, it will be easy for the renminbi to go out.

Of course, it depends on the development and growth of the enterprise itself.

< /p >

< p > generally speaking, currency internationalization is not realized through current account, but also through capital account. The necessary condition for the former is that the local currency is paid more than the actual income, and the latter is the direct investment in the form of local currency.

In the same year, an important means of the internationalization of the dollar was to implement the Marshall plan for European aid to direct the US dollar to Europe, which is closely related to the economic strength of the US and Europe after World War II.

The choice of RMB internationalization has a certain robustness from the beginning of the current account, but the process is relatively slow.

Under the premise of exchange rate stability, its progress depends on the enthusiasm of enterprises to import renminbi, which requires both policy support and bargaining power of enterprises.

< /p >