Seed Cotton "Touch Top" Down, Processing Factory Reluctant To Sell Lint

According to the survey, on October 21-22, some cotton ginning mills in southern Akesu and Bachu had lowered the purchase price of seed cotton after 2-3 days of stagflation. Among them, the highest purchase price of seed and cotton from 43% yuan and above to 43% yuan and 6.50 kg of cotton seed was adjusted from 6.75-6.80 yuan / kg to 6.60-6.70 yuan / kg. Some ginning plants even dropped to 6.50 yuan / kg. On the 21 day, the 40 cotton seed purchase price in South Xinjiang was concentrated at 6.30-6.40 yuan / kg.

As for the reasons for the fall of seed cotton purchase price, the parties believe that the first is the increase of lint cotton is lagging behind the seed cotton seriously, and the profit of the cotton mill is shifting from full to negative. Some cotton enterprises that have signed orders at the early stage are "unable to eat". The cotton mill that stops collecting is increasing gradually. The departments in Kashi and Akesu reappear "selling cotton difficultly", followed by a large number of

The supply and demand for public inspection began to reverse, as well as the signs of "turning" in Zhengzhou CF1501 and CF1503, which aggravated the worry about the decline of cotton lint. Once again, the cotton lint of Xinjiang production and Construction Corps will pass through the whole nation's cotton.

The "Xinjiang cotton auction sale" platform was launched in 2014, and the 3128 level quoted price was 14500 yuan / ton. The market participants predicted that the cotton prices quoted by local enterprises should be returned to 14000 yuan / ton.

Although 21, 22, Akesu cotton and hemp autonomous region cotton and linen library platform 3128, 2128 mixed batches of cotton wool weight quoted price is still 14600-14800 yuan / ton (before the flower 2128 level is generally less than 20%, three grade flower is the main grade), individual grade, slightly better lint price quotation 14900 yuan / ton, but mainly cotton and civilian cotton customers 1-2 batch of pick-up price, rarely appear more than 300 tons of large orders, some mainland purchasing enterprises more than 18 million order price in the yuan / ton, and cotton enterprises because of seed cotton prices rise and generally sell.

21 days

The price of cotton seeds to factories in Korla and other places is concentrated at 1.73-1.75 yuan / kg. The pickup price in the ginning mill is generally not higher than 1.70 yuan / kg. Some cotton enterprises are not optimistic about the cottonseed market, and sell 100-200 tons each time.

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If the market stabilizes or even rebounded, it may stimulate a wave of low stocking in the market, and the pressure on polyester stocks will ease further.

However, due to the improvement of profit situation, the starting rate of polyester is rising, and the terminal textile and clothing will gradually enter the off-season.

Therefore, after the short term promotion, polyester products sales may once again become weak, and the polyester industry will still face the pressure of inventory rebound.

In the final analysis, the weak terminal demand will continue to inhibit the upstream polyester prices, thereby restricting the rise of PTA prices.

The rapid growth of production capacity has met with the poor demand of terminal. In the past two years, the profits of the PTA industry have been poor. In the first half of this year, in order to improve the profit situation, the joint reduction of production capacity among large enterprises has brought a marked effect on the rise of PTA prices, and the PTA price rebounded from May.

Although PTA's operating rate has remained low, market supply and demand remain tight, but it has failed to stop prices from falling.

Before and after the national day, the PTA business starts to pick up, and continues to rise to a high level of 75% in the near future.

Therefore, the supply of the market will increase significantly, thus forming a pressure on the price of PTA.

To sum up, the downward trend of the industrial chain from top to bottom has improved the cash flow of PTA and polyester industry.

Although raw material prices continued to fall sharply, PTA and polyester products slowed down.

Therefore, PTA processing loss has narrowed, polyester industry has seen a better profit, profit means that enterprises should increase production, polyester and PTA operating rate in the near future obvious recovery.

However, under the premise of no improvement in terminal demand environment, after a period of accumulation, inventory pressure will once again become the main factor restricting PTA and polyester price recovery.

Technically, the PTA price is still in short order, and the downward trend remains unchanged. However, the RSI index deviates from the bottom. If there is a technical rebound, it will create opportunities for the central line to continue to sell short.