PTA Before The Spring Festival, The Stock Market Has Raised The Bull Market.

Recently, Xiaobian saw the voice of the raw material Market: the US oil "13 trading days" broke the record rebounded by 18%, and the polyester industry chain rose.

Polyester raw materials: PTA limit, ethylene glycol rebound!

Polyester filament: production and marketing burst, stock down, profit compression, sealed sales.

There is no doubt that in the second half of last year, the polyester industry chain, which has surged and collapsed, has changed greatly at the end of the year.

In recent years, the PTA rally was fierce and abnormal, and it began to rise all the way from the beginning of 19 in early January.

From the lowest point 5560 to 6424, or up to 13%, in January 21st, it was all the way up until the limit.

So where will the next PTA market go?

The supply and demand fundamentals are expected to be unfulfilled and the cost side rally is lifted, and PTA is out of the recovery rebound market.

According to industry feedback, the main reason for the PTA's recent strong rebound is the expected cash recovery. The supply increment expectations and demand reduction expectations have been postponed, so that PTA's own inventory is still relatively low, and downstream polyester products inventory has been further digested.

The supply and demand fundamentals are expected to be unfulfilled and the cost side rebound is lifted, and PTA has stepped out of the recovery rebound market.

1, crude oil rebound and PX high

In terms of cost, the gradual implementation of the OPEC production reduction led to a sharp rebound in oil prices, and PX costs were well supported. Recently, the production capacity of Tenglong aromatics 1 million 600 thousand ton PX plant was not smooth, a 800 thousand ton was running close to full load, and the other line was postponed until after the Spring Festival.

In addition, according to the 2019 PX maintenance schedule, Asian PX overhaul is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, while domestic PX's new capacity Hengli petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical will first be put into operation in the three quarter, so PX will still present a relatively strong trend in the first half of the year. At present, the oil price difference of PX- Shi Shi is still around 570 yuan, and the short-term PX profit will remain high.

2, the supply increment is not as good as expected.

From the PTA supply side, the short-term device emergency factors are more than the supply side. Ningbo Yisheng two sets of 2 million 850 thousand tons of PTA devices temporarily stop because of the power jump. Although it was quickly restarted, it accelerated the PTA price in the atmosphere. In January, it was in the restart period of several maintenance devices. Yisheng Dahua, Yangzi Petrochemical, and Peng Wei Petrochemical were postponed to January 25th, and the problem of the negative load of Fuhai innovation device was postponed to the next year. Therefore, the increment of PTA supply was not as good as expected, and did not enter the expected accumulation process.

From the maintenance device, Hua Bin Petrochemical plans to overhaul at the end of January, which can offset the negative effect of some device restart.

Therefore, the supply side will gradually increase production as a whole. It is expected that PTA will start to increase by 3% next week, and the supply will be neutral.

3, polyester repair implementation lag, downstream inventory further reduced

From the demand side, because the maintenance of polyester plant is not as good as expected, the short-term demand support is acceptable when the replenishment behavior is superimposed on the downstream.

The rate of decline in polyester operating rate is much slower than expected. From last week's Polyester start up rate, it slipped 0.6% in the week, still at a high level of above 80%.

Three factors, such as the improvement of production and marketing, the digestion of inventory and the good profits, make the implementation of maintenance of polyester plant lag behind.

On the inventory of finished goods, the FDY and DTY of the pre high level have slipped. The overall stock of the polyester market is at a medium level of 10-13 days, and the pressure on the industrial chain is obviously weakened.

This extreme reflection of the trading limit is more of a gold face game, and this overreaction will lay hidden trouble for the future market.

At present, there is no obvious change in the fundamentals of PTA, and rising crude oil is an important defensive line.

But in addition to the impact of raw materials, the extreme reflection of the trading limit can only be explained by the game of capital face. Remember the horror of PTA's tumbling and tumbling six months ago?

This overreaction will lay hidden trouble for the future market.

At the end of August 2018, PTA began to fall from the high level of 9000 yuan / ton. The reason was that the demand was suppressed at a high price. As a result, terminal consumption was in a mess of the traditional Wandicha of gold and silver ten, and the spot price of PTA dropped to below 6900 yuan / ton. The 1901 of the futures main contract was 6458 below the spot, and the lowest spot processing was once compressed to below 300 yuan / ton.

1. Anticipation and postholiday realities before the Spring Festival

Since January, the production and sale of polyester products in the downstream have been continuously improved, and the polyester stocks in polyester factories have dropped significantly, mainly due to the habit of stocking in weaving factories before the Spring Festival, especially at the end of the year.

In 2018, the profits of enterprises were better, so the funds were more abundant. Even if the market was not optimistic after the holidays, there was also a need for stocking in the case of common stock.

From the product inventory of polyester plant, short staple enterprises basically have no stock, and the stock of filament enterprises is in the middle and lower level. Recently, polyester sales continue to expand. This phenomenon is a short-term profit and also a hidden danger in the future market.

The low level of polyester plant may result in a decline in the implementation of the maintenance during the Spring Festival, but weaving will become a major negative point in the late part of the fundamentals. The opening rate of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms will drop by 4% in the early stage, and the continued decline of looms will inevitably be made before the year. According to the conventional situation, the loom's starting rate still has a 30%-40% gliding space.

From the end of the festival, with the decline of the start of the Spring Festival, the stock of polyester enterprises will return to the high level again, but the raw material inventory of the weaving plant needs to be slowly digested after the workers return to the city.

According to the situation reflected by enterprises in recent years, the time for workers to return to posts is generally postponed, and some of them are not returning to posts due to the pfer of industries to their home areas. Therefore, in order to retain workers, enterprises have to continuously improve their wages and benefits.

In the spring of 2018, workers were basically on duty until the end of March. The digestion of polyester products began at the end of March and early April.

Therefore, after the Spring Festival in 2019, it may still experience longer term inventory pressure.

2, PTA faces increased production, but there is uncertainty.

Before and after the Spring Festival, polyester factories overhauled more, but PTA production maintained. Therefore, the first quarter will tend to have a larger warehouse. In the first quarter of last year, there were 880 thousand tonnes of storage, and this year there will be about 80-90 tons of storage.

After the Spring Festival, Fuhua 4 million 500 thousand tons of equipment may increase the load, so the monthly output of PTA will increase by about 100 thousand tons. In addition, the news remains that the Sichuan Shengda 1 million ton plant will be restarted in March.

Although there is a shortage of raw materials in the 1 million 900 thousand ton plant in Southwest China, the profitability of PTA will probably be better overall next year, so the increment of Shengda 1 million tons should be more definite, but only when the problem of release occurs.

If released according to the plan in 3-4 months, there will be pressure on the market.

Historically, PTA has continued to rise before the Spring Festival.

Judging from the historical trend of the 05 contract, from 2009 to the present 10 years, except for 2014 and 2018, PTA has been in the market for 8 years before the Spring Festival.

From a fundamental perspective, it can be attributed to the stock market in the lower reaches of the Spring Festival, which has led to a surge in the bull market. After the festival is exhausted, the terminal production has started slowly, forcing prices to bear pressure. The long term atmosphere before the festival may continue to prevail. After the festival, the market may cool down, or the history will be repeated on the 05 contract.