PTA Last July Last Year, Will The History Replay This Year?

What factors did PTA rise in July last year? What was the situation then? Now, where are they different? Is there any possibility of another wave?

On the one hand, big market needs to have basic coordination, and on the other hand, it needs the promotion of capital. At the basic level, we still compare the differences in inventory, base, profit, warehouse receipt and so on. At the financial level, we can compare the number of short and short funds and the situation of the seats.

From the angle of inventory, we compare the absolute inventory quantity and dynamic inventory change trend, taking the PTA social inventory map provided by Nanhua futures as an example. Last year's inventory was almost the same as that of the same period this year, and the price of TA's main contract is also slightly different. The only big difference is that last year, from April to the end of August, there was a very continuous process of storehouse, and this year from April to now is a more obvious process of storehouse. The seesaw effect often appears between stock and price, stock prices fall, stock prices rise and prices fall. This is the first difference between this year and last year.

From the point of view of processing fees, the spot processing fee level was relatively low in the same period last year, because the price of PX at the end of the cost was relatively strong, and the spot processing fee was very high in the same period this year. Although the absolute price was not particularly high, but due to the expectation of PX production capacity at the cost side, the PX price was weakening, the cost side fell, and the industrial profit was spanferred from PX to PTA, so the processing fee of this year was much higher than that of the same period last year under the same or similar price.

From the base point of view, last year and this year TA has always been futures on the spot, but from the absolute value of the base, after June last year, the base continued to widen, indicating that the spot continued to strengthen, the spot led futures to rise and widened the base, because futures were subject to a rise and fall limit, and there was no limit on the spot price. When the spot market was hot, the spot price rose rapidly. If TA wants to replicate the trend of last year, there will also be a wave of spot leading futures, but this year's TA spot is obviously not as strong as it was last year.

From the comparison of warehouse receipts, the number of warehouse receipts in the same period last year was relatively low, and the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly in the same period this year, at least 7 times over the same period last year. Warehouse receipts often reflect the supply and demand situation of a variety of spot market. Especially when mature varieties and spot market demand are good, the general warehouse receipts generation is relatively low, especially in the reverse market structure, futures are lower than spot prices. As long as the spot market can be shipped normally, no one is willing to ship through the futures market unless the spot market is really unable to sell. At this time, the stock will be spanferred from the spot market to the futures market, and the corresponding amount of warehouse receipts will continue to increase. Combined with the trend of going to the Treasury in the same period last year, the same period this year is the trend of storehouse, so we can judge the demand end of this year is not as good as that of the same period last year.

At the level of capital, the Dragon Tiger ratio and cattle bear line can be compared with odd goods, and the Dragon Tiger ratio is the index derived from the comparison of the absolute strength of short and short funds. The positive area represents the capital of multiple funds, and the negative area represents the short capital. Niu Xiong line is to ignore the size of the funds, but from the profitability of the seats to analyze, positive areas represent more profitable seats, more negative, the number of regions representing the profitability of the seats empty short, there is nothing to do with the number of short funds, only to examine the ability of seats.

Comparing TA1809 and TA1909 contract this year, from the point of view of dragon and tiger ratio, in the 5-9 month period, it is obvious that the dragon and tiger of TA1809 are more positive than most of the time, while the TA1909 contract is a negative area of dragon tiger than fighter. Therefore, from the absolute strength of long and short funds, last year, multi fund was more dominant, and this year, short capital was more dominant. Let's compare the situation of Niu Xiong line. TA1809's bear and bear line is basically red. It shows that the seats with strong profits last year are many on TA1809, while the TA1909 bears are basically green. This shows that this year's relatively profitable seats are empty on TA1909.

So this year compared with last year, there have been significant changes in many aspects. Therefore, it is unlikely that the market will be repeated again last year. The warehouse receipts are several times higher than the same period last year. The same period last year was the trend of going to the warehouse, but this year is indeed a trend of storehouse. Last year, the spot price was strong, and the spot price led the futures price to rise. The spot price was loose this year, and the futures price led the spot price to fall. I personally think that it is unlikely that the last year's big rally will be replicated.

For now, from a disk perspective, PTA has been out of the bottom rally after a period of decline. There may be three reasons for the rise: one is the PX rise of the raw material terminal, the two is the PTA device down, and the three is that the leaders of China and the United States have called, and the demand side is expected to improve. Of course, in all my analysis, I didn't talk about the crude oil problem. I hate the fact that the industry factor is the most. I can also compare the crude oil and crude oil this year last year. Basically, the price of most varieties can be understood from three angles: crude oil + macro + industry, corresponding to different basic factors: cost plus demand + profit / inventory.