After V-Shaped Reversal: Sales Of New Energy Vehicles In China Will Increase By 40% In 2021?

"From the perspective of China's development trend, new energy vehicles enter the innovation stage driven by both market and policy. On the one hand, the commodity market of new energy vehicles is becoming more and more diversified. The attention of the capital market makes the output value of new energy vehicle enterprises grow rapidly and promote cross-border investment in other fields. On the other hand, from the perspective of policy driven, fiscal subsidies and tax policies have been implemented. At present, people are more concerned about the policy support of "double points", carbon trading and long-term taxation. " On January 16, Wan Gang, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the China Association for science and technology, said at the forum of China electric vehicle 100 people's meeting (2021).

On January 13, China's Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "CAAC") released data showing that in 2020, China's automobile production and sales completed 25.225 million and 25.311 million, respectively, down 2% and 1.9% year-on-year. Among them, in 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.366 million and 1.367 million, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% and 10.9% respectively, and the growth rate exceeded the market. It is worth mentioning that the sales volume of pure electric passenger cars exceeded 1 million for the first time.

Affected by the decline of subsidies, China's new energy vehicles will show a negative growth for the first time in a decade in 2019. In the first half of 2020, the auto market will go down and the sudden epidemic will occur, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to decline. However, since July 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have begun to pick up, showing the structural characteristics of new energy vehicles driving the growth of passenger cars.

It is worth noting that the high-end market focusing on intelligent networking and the low-end market focusing on cost performance will become two important supporting points for China's new energy vehicles in 2020. In fact, with the introduction of a series of favorable policies, more and more investors are scrambling to seize the new energy vehicle track, and technology giants such as Baidu, Ali, Huawei have entered the board. Will the heating new energy vehicles usher in a new round of reshuffle? Can the new energy vehicle market continue its hot market in 2021? Where will it go?

From policy driven to market driven

In 2020, China's auto market presents a "V-shaped" reversal trend, in which the trend of new energy vehicle market is low before and high after. According to the data of the Federation of passengers and passengers, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles in the first half of 2020 is - 43.0%, and the growth rate in the second half of 2020 is 72.0%. Among them, the high-end Tesla and micro electric vehicle representative Hongguang Mini EV become the core force driving market growth.

According to the sales data, in 2020, Tesla Model 3 will achieve a cumulative sales volume of 137500 vehicles, becoming the top sales volume of China's new energy vehicles in 2020. Hongguang Mini EV, which has won the first monthly sales for several months since its launch, ranks second in the whole year with 112800 units.

"Thanks to the rapid rebound of China's economy and the overall car market, China's new energy vehicle sales returned to the growth track in the whole year. By analyzing the structural characteristics of sales volume, the increment mainly comes from two types of products: one is high-end electric vehicle products, the other is the economic generation products represented by Wuling Hongguang Mini. " On January 16, Wang Xiaoqiu, President of Shanghai Automotive Group Co., Ltd., said at the forum of China electric vehicle 100 people's meeting.

Wang Xiaoqiu pointed out that the economic type of Daibu products is not equal to the "low-end" in the traditional sense, because among the buyers of Hongguang mini, the "post-80s" are more than 80% and the "post-90s" are more than 50%. They are the main force of domestic consumption. Moreover, many consumers buy Hongguang Mini as the second car at home to meet their daily needs.

In addition, Weilai, idealist and Xiaopeng, the three swordsmen of the new car making force, have made breakthroughs in sales, share price and market value in 2020. In the list of "2020 Hurun world 500" released on January 12, the value of Weilai increased to 23 times in 2019, reaching 403.9 billion yuan; the value of Xiaopeng automobile increased to 9 times in 2019, reaching 248.8 billion yuan.

It is worth noting that in the process of transforming from policy driven to market driven, the new energy vehicle enterprises which once relied heavily on subsidies are facing severe challenges. Before that, BAIC new energy, which has been the champion in China's pure electric vehicle market for seven consecutive years, sold 25900 vehicles in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 82.79%.

Kaiyuan Securities said in the research report that, thanks to the catalysis of high-quality supply from Tesla, BYD, new forces of car making and Hongguang Mini EV, the domestic new energy passenger car market presents a "barbell" structure with high and low-end ends. Looking forward to the next 2-3 years, Tesla, BYD and new forces of car manufacturing will gradually lower the products, and high-quality supply will still be the main driving force for the sales growth of new energy vehicles.

It is worth noting that in addition to the obvious differentiation of high and low-end, China's private consumption market of new energy vehicles will grow significantly in 2020, and the market is experiencing a transition from policy driven to market driven.

On January 17, Xu Changming, deputy director of the state information center, said that the biggest change in the new energy vehicle market in 2020 is an important step towards market-oriented drive. From the perspective of structure, the new energy vehicle market in 2020 presents three new characteristics: first, the private market will make a breakthrough, with the private market increasing by 52.7%, and the public market sales volume will decrease by 26.5%, which will reach the highest level in the whole year; second, the private purchase in non restricted cities will contribute more to the growth; third, it will break through the private market To rely on the high-end and low-end pull, polarization is obvious, the mid-end model is not ideal. Among them, the market of A00 has increased by 104%, and the market of grade B and above has achieved a growth of 100.2%.

However, Xu Changming also pointed out that if new energy vehicles want to be sold in large quantities, they must make a breakthrough in the A-class car market and continue to increase efforts in the whole industry chain. For consumers, the comprehensive cost performance of price, brand and service life is an obstacle for consumers to choose. For automobile enterprises, cost reduction is the most important thing, including reducing battery cost and reducing power consumption per hundred kilometers through lightweight, low resistance modeling, high efficiency electric drive and thermal management of air conditioning.

40% increase in 2021 sales?

After three years of decline, China's auto market is expected to return to the growth track in 2021. CAAC predicts that the total sales volume of China's automobiles will be 26.3 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 4%. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 1.8 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 40%.

On January 17, Wang Qing, deputy director of the market economy Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, said that in the direction of the automobile market in 2021, the growth rate of sales volume will continue to rise slightly, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the later. The annual sales volume is roughly the same as that of last year, and is expected to achieve a small growth in the range of 0-2%. There will still be an annual potential growth rate of 1.5% - 2% in the future.

Without considering technology substitution and business model innovation, China's car ownership will be about 430 million by 2030, and the car ownership per thousand people will be about 300. "The auto market has inherent requirements of self-healing and returning to potential growth rate, but there is still a process for the recovery of consumption of main models, regions and groups. The macroeconomic, epidemic prevention and control, and the relative stability of the global supply chain are the preconditions for the market to continue to recover. " He said.

At the beginning of 2021, Tesla Model y was listed at a low price. Weilai released the intelligent electric car et7 and 150kwh solid-state battery. Baidu announced to enter the automotive industry as a vehicle manufacturer. The high-end intelligent pure electric vehicle brand "Im Zhiji" jointly created by SAIC and Alibaba released two models of intelligent pure electric car and intelligent pure electric SUV, which exploded the automobile circle. More and more auto companies and Internet giants on the new energy vehicle track began to increase their horsepower to grab market share.

What can not be ignored is that in 2020, multinational companies such as Volkswagen, Daimler, Mercedes Benz, BMW and other multinational companies accelerate the distribution of new energy vehicle market in China, and the offensive of new energy vehicle products will continue in 2021. BMW plans to sell 100000 pure electric vehicles in 2021 and more than 7 million new energy vehicles worldwide by 2030, according to the chairman of BMW Group zipuce on January 16.

CITIC Securities research report pointed out that the industry growth trend is clear, and the gradual release of more popular models with consumer attraction will stimulate market demand. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 will reach 2.1 million, with a year-on-year increase of 54%; the prosperity of the passenger car industry is clear, and the sales volume is expected to achieve 15% growth in 2021. Kaiyuan securities also predicts that 2021 will be a big year for new energy vehicles in the world. In 2021, the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 4.361 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 59.9%.

However, it is worth noting that with the in-depth development of intelligence and networking, the introduction of favorable policies, and the recognition and pursuit of the capital market, the new energy vehicle industry has broad development prospects, but it is also inevitably facing challenges and constraints.

On January 16, Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), pointed out that at present, China's intelligent connected vehicles are in the early stage of commercialization with rapid technological evolution and accelerated industrialization layout. It is inevitable that the automobile industry is undergoing changes, the business model of enterprises is facing adjustment, and the deep integration and development of the industry will become inevitable There are three major challenges: system and security.

Xiao Yaqing, Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, also said that how to optimize the industrial layout and how to better maintain the smooth supply chain have become the key issues that the whole industry must answer, and also the key to whether China's new energy vehicle industry can reach a new level in the next 15 years. According to its introduction, the Ministry of industry and information technology will guide the development of the automobile industry in five aspects: implementing the action of strengthening the chain to supplement the chain, speeding up the tackling of key technical problems, increasing the promotion and application, optimizing the industrial development environment, and deepening high-level open cooperation.

In addition, with the rapid development of China's new energy vehicle industry, infrastructure will face new opportunities and challenges. Wang Binggang, leader of the national new energy vehicle innovation project expert group, believes that in the construction of electric vehicle infrastructure, safety, low-carbon, economy and convenience should be the basic elements to be considered.

Qin Lihong, the co-founder and President of Weilai automobile, said that in the further popularization of electric vehicles, the popularization of public facilities and infrastructure is a big constraint. "In the process of specific layout of power stations, charging piles and home charging piles, there are many challenges in the front line, and most places can not rely on."