Cost Boosts Polyester Filament Market To Usher In A "Good Start"

According to the price monitoring, the domestic polyester filament market price continued the upward trend at the end of 2020, combined with the recent international oil price surge, making the market usher in a "good start" market after the Spring Festival. In terms of factories, the average daily increase is 100 yuan, and some even increase more than 300 yuan, and there is a hot scene of price adjustment twice in a single day. As of February 24, the reference for poy150d / 48F negotiation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filament market is 7500-7750 yuan / ton, that of fdy150d / 96F is 7500-7700 yuan / ton, and that of dty150d / 48F is 9000-9200 yuan / ton.

In terms of production and marketing, the average production and sales of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 130% - 150%, and the production and sales of some hot factories can reach 300%. Polyester inventory is concentrated in 19-26 days, POY inventory is 7-9 days, FDY inventory is 12-22 days, DTY inventory is about 13-26 days. Judging from the average price of various products, polyester FDY had the most obvious increase, with an increase of 16.09% as of February 24 compared with the first month (the seventh day of the first month) on February 18, followed by polyester POY and polyester DTY, with an increase of 15.95% and 11.31% respectively.

Market average price rise and fall of polyester filament after Spring Festival, unit: yuan / ton

Crude oil continued to rebound and cost support strengthened

Recently, affected by the cold wave, US crude oil production has decreased, and many institutions have raised oil price expectations to boost market confidence. Crude oil rebounded strongly, and crude oil reached a new high in nearly 13 months. Boosted by crude oil, PTA market rose. As of February 24, the average price of spot market was 4615 yuan / ton, up 13.14% compared with February 18 and 4.32% higher than that on February 18. At present, the PTA spot processing difference is reduced to less than 200 yuan / ton. Under the low processing cost, some PTA units are planned to be overhauled, and the overall supply is lower than the market expectation. Among them, Eason Hainan 2 million tons PTA plant will be overhauled on February 11, 2021, and it is estimated that it will be shut down for about one month. A 400000 ton PTA plant in Shanghai was shut down unexpectedly, and the restart time was to be determined. The overall load of domestic PTA plant dropped to about 86%.

Downstream factories return to work orderly and purchase carefully

As of February 24, the comprehensive start-up rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has increased to more than 48%. It is expected that the weaving industry will basically resume normal operation in early March. However, due to the fact that the raw materials have a good rise at the present stage, the market risks have been aggravated due to the rapid increase of raw materials. Therefore, the downstream companies are cautious to observe the market and make more inquiries, but the "order" is still hesitant, and the order has not improved significantly. Since the opening of the traditional trade zone of China Light and Textile City in the morning of February 19, to February 23, the fabrics in spring are knitted printed T-shirt fabric, knitted jacquard fabric, knitted embroidered fabric, knitted burnt out fabric, and knitted water-soluble fabric, which are mainly distributed in small batch and multi varieties. However, it will be some time before most merchants from the north and the South return to the market. The traditional market of light and textile city will maintain normal business rate until February 26 (the 15th day of the first lunar month) after the Lantern Festival.

From the perspective of the future market, from the survey, most enterprises still have expectations for the market in March, and the majority of them continue to be bullish. Analysts believe that the current cost side still has some support, short-term crude oil prices will remain high volatility, strong auxiliary, the latter need to pay attention to the situation of the OPEC + meeting on March 4. From the perspective of PTA, the current PTA processing difference is compressed to a low level. From March to April, the domestic PTA plant maintenance capacity is close to 9 million tons. Pay attention to the implementation of later maintenance and the commissioning of new units. In the downstream market, grey fabric was sold at a loss before the festival, and the overall inventory pressure was not great. Recently, grey cloth followed the trend of polyester rise, and the quotation was gradually raised. It was heard that some traders were also collecting cloth in large quantities. After the festival, grey cloth inventory showed a downward trend. Based on the above, it is expected that in the short term, the price of polyester filament may be adjusted by the fluctuation of raw materials, but the overall fall is unlikely. However, after mid March, as the terminal demand becomes clear gradually and the demand side will be suppressed due to excessive rising trend, it is expected that the negotiation will be deadlocked in mid March, and there is a risk of weakening.