Market Analysis: Cotton Yarn Price Market Is Weak; Textile Enterprises Are Not Willing To Stock Up

Zheng Mian is dominated by weak operation. In terms of spot goods, the latest cotton price index at 328 level was 15101 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of cash, currently 2024/25 North Xinjiang Machinery Mining 4129/29B/Miscellaneous 3.5, more sales basis is CF01+600 or above, a small amount is less than 600, South Xinjiang Machinery Mining 3129/29B/Miscellaneous 1.5, South Xinjiang Machinery Mining 31 level double 29 Most of them are CF01+650 and above, and a few of them are lower than this price, which are self raised in Xinjiang.

The overall market of pure cotton yarn is not improving. The price of cotton yarn remains stable and weak. It is reported that some downstream markets have improved. It is expected that the procurement will gradually follow up and the turnover will increase, but it is difficult for the yarn price to rebound. The cotton grey cloth market is still weak. Although some parts of the market began to stock up sporadically, the overall textile factory's de stocking situation is not as good as that of the same period last year, and the inventory pressure continues to increase. It is expected that the stock market will start in the middle and late ten days, and the textile factory's inventory will decline.

USDA 12 The monthly supply and demand report shows that the increase of global output is greater than that of consumption, and the ending inventory accumulates slightly. At the same time, the consumption and import of China are reduced, and the report is neutral and empty. At present, the domestic supply is still sufficient in terms of fundamentals. The growth of new cotton supply puts pressure on the price rise of cotton market. Up to now, most textile enterprises' replenishment is just in need of replenishment, and the overall readiness is weak, and the price of listed orders has also moved down slightly, with the concentrated range of listed orders below 13500 yuan/ton, maintaining a weak operation in the short term, and paying attention to recent changes in macro policies.

According to the monthly report of global cotton supply and demand in December 2024 released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the global cotton output is expected to increase by 120% due to the increase in the output of India and Argentina More than 10000 packages, up to 117.4 million packages. Due to the increase of unit yield, India's output is expected to increase by 1 million bales to 2500 Ten thousand packages. Due to the increase of consumption in India, Pakistan and Vietnam, it is expected that the global consumption will increase by more than 500000 packets to 115.8 million packets, far offsetting the decrease of China's consumption. Global cotton trade volume is expected to rise slightly to 42.3 million packages. The upward adjustment of exports to Brazil and Benin far offset the downward adjustment of exports to Burkina Faso and Mali.

China's imports decreased by 500000 bales, while Pakistan's imports also increased by 50% Ten thousand packages. The further increase in the import data of Honduras and Vietnam offset the decrease in the import data of Mexico. It is expected that the global ending inventory will increase by nearly 300000 packages. USA 2024/25 The annual seasonal average price of agricultural products remained at 66 cents per pound.