Shenzhen'S Second-Hand Housing Transactions Hit A Four-Year High In June, "False Fire" Overspread, And Regulation Expectations Were Strengthened

The Shenzhen property market, which recovered the fastest from the epidemic, came out of a wave of independent market in the first half of the year. In the past June, there were more than 10000 second-hand houses sold in Shenzhen, and a total of 44000 were sold in the first half of the year, approaching the "bull market" turnover in 2015 and hitting a new high since 2016.

After the epidemic entered the normalization of prevention and control, monetary policy was loose, and part of the capital flowed to the property market, especially Shenzhen, which had relatively low purchase restriction threshold, and became the "sweet spot" in the eyes of buyers across the country.

In the view of some insiders in Shenzhen, behind this heat is a false fire that breaks away from the law of supply and demand. Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development sent people to Shenzhen to investigate and discuss the trend of the property market with many Shenzhen insiders.

A new regulatory policy may be brewing, and Shenzhen property market urgently needs a "visible hand" to smooth the dry heat and return to the track of long-term steady development.

The heat keeps rising

In July, the scorching sun made Shenzhen's property market hotter than the temperature.

Since March, the new housing market in Shenzhen has remained hot.

Second hand housing also entered the fast lane of recovery. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from March to May, the price increase of second-hand houses in Shenzhen led the country, with the month on month increase of about 1.6%, and the year-on-year increase of 9.7% to 12.0%, ranking among the top 5 in 70 cities.

The heat of Shenzhen property market continued in June. According to the data of Zhongyuan Research Center, 3343 new houses were sold in Shenzhen in June, up 6.4% month on month; The transaction area was 336000 square meters, up 11.5% month on month.

After four years, second-hand houses once again "broke 10000". In June, 10594 houses were sold, up 23.9% month on month, back to the level in March 2016; The average price of second-hand houses also reached a new high. According to the data of China Real Estate Association, the average price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen exceeded 70000 yuan/square meter in June, reaching 74929 yuan/square meter, which was more than 20% higher than that in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, up 14.37% from the end of last year, ranking second in China.

According to the data of Shenzhen Leyoujia Research Center, in the whole first half of the year, the new housing market only supplied 8157 units, with a total of 16727 units sold, and the inventory on sale dropped to 6-7 months; The transaction of second-hand houses reached a six-month high in the past four years, reaching 44000 sets, up 41% year on year.

All of this happened in the general environment where the epidemic situation entered into normal prevention and control. In the first half of the year when the macro economy was declining and the per capita income was declining, why did Shenzhen's property market go out of the market that deviated from the macro level?

Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, believes that the rise in Shenzhen in the first half of the year was mainly due to the favorable monetary policy and the optimistic expectations of house buyers. Most house buyers believe that the monetary policy will continue to be loose in the future, while the house will maintain its value.

"Shenzhen is the first tier city with the most relaxed purchase restrictions. At the same time, there are a large number of buyers of tens of millions of houses at any time under the loose liquidity. If the above channels are blocked, even if the supply does not increase, the Shenzhen property market will be much quieter." A senior Shenzhen industry insider pointed out that Shenzhen's loose purchase restrictions make it easy to obtain tickets for investing in Shenzhen real estate. In Shenzhen, undergraduate students can settle down and buy houses. In the first half of this year, many people purposely settled down in Shenzhen to buy houses.

In other words, it is not entirely true that the demand for self occupancy is supporting the property market. Shenzhen's houses have been "investment oriented" to a certain extent. According to Shenzhen Zhongyuan data, since March, the proportion of investment demand in the market has approached 40%, which is almost the level of the bull market in 2015-2016.

Control expectations are gradually emerging

In such a hot market that attracts the attention of the whole country, the voice of "seeking stability" in Shenzhen property market is getting higher and higher.

"Recently, I have attended several seminars and symposiums on Shenzhen's real estate and property market, with the same theme: how to stabilize the property market in Shenzhen," said Song Ding, director of the Tourism and Real Estate Research Center of China Institute of Comprehensive Development.

On July 4, Ni Hong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, went to Shenzhen for research and held a symposium, which was attended by Vanke, China Resources, Shell and other developers and intermediaries.

All participants mentioned the problem of supply shortage. Jiang Muchuan, general manager of China Resources Land South China Region, said that the low supply of residential land in Shenzhen was an important reason for the oversupply of commercial housing in Shenzhen and the great pressure of rising house prices.

Tan Huajie, partner of Vanke Group, pointed out that Shenzhen's land development rate is not high enough. He said that at present, the land development rate in Shenzhen is 40%, and that in Tokyo, Japan, the development rate is 70%.

In addition, the participants also pointed out that there was an excess of office buildings in Shenzhen, and proposed to speed up the implementation of the "commercial to residential" policy in Shenzhen.

However, these proposals and measures cannot work on the current hot property market, and there is still a strong expectation of administrative regulation in the market.

Although the investigation of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development did not release the information about strengthening regulation, the market overreacted, rumours spread all over the country, and even the "gossip" of a new regulation policy was announced immediately.

At that time, the transaction atmosphere in the property market was urgent. In the short term, the weekly online sign data of second-hand houses soared 40.7% month on month. On July 7, Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association came forward to refute the rumor and denied the above rumor.

How to get to Shenzhen property market next? Will there be regulation? Centaline Real Estate believes that with the recent significant rise in housing prices in several cities, tightening control policies have begun to emerge. Hangzhou, Ningbo, Dongguan and other places have recently tightened the regulation of the property market.

Liu Liqin, Vice President of Leyoujia Marketing, and many other industry insiders predicted that Shenzhen's regulatory policies are likely to be introduced.

Li Yujia believes that the "Shenfangli fraud" incident shows that the real estate market investment has been deeply rooted in the marrow. Behind the rise of the real estate market, it is not that Shenzhen's real demand is too large, but that the leverage is too strong, resulting in demand exceeding supply. In the short term, the regulators need to innovate regulation means and refine policies. It is suggested that the financial and housing construction departments should cooperate and make substantive actions.

Song Ding pointed out that the core problem of Shenzhen's property market is the serious shortage of long-term land supply, and the limited supply has become the subject of speculation by investment and speculation forces, which has led to the rise of the real estate market and high house prices.

He said that the policy guides public opinion to play a role in stabilizing expectations, which is of course necessary for the highly volatile Shenzhen property market. In the long run, we should start from the supply side and effectively improve the imbalance between supply and demand, which is the root cause.

Shenzhen Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau said that in 2020, Shenzhen plans to enter the market of 69350 commercial housing units, including 50618 residential units. In the first half of the year, there were less than 10000 pre-sales. That is to say, there are still 40000 commercial houses to enter the market in the second half of the year.

However, this is still a short-term measure, which can only alleviate the supply and demand relationship this year at most.

Li Yujia believes that in order to solve the problem of "high housing prices" in Shenzhen in the future, we must jump out of Shenzhen and let the large Shenzhen coordination and cooperation demonstration zone settle down as soon as possible And tax) sharing as an incentive mechanism and a starting point. Only by implementing Shenzhen's overall planning of land use, rail transit, public supporting facilities, industrial layout, cross-border planning and other packages in the cooperation demonstration zone can we thoroughly solve the problem of insufficient land supply.